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Tom Wojcik’s report, based on figures through Sept. 26, traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure across fuel markets, food supplies and winter heating risks. The supplied material describes sharp oil and tanker-rate movements, fuel shortages at some French stations and expected pressure on harvests; it does not establish the full scale or duration of those effects.
Polish writer Tom Wojcik has published a report tracing how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting fuel prices, food production and energy security, including risks to winter heating in Europe. The report says tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent since Iran shut it in March, following U.S. and Israeli military operations that began in late February.
Wojcik’s account follows the disruption from oil shipping into prices and supply. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel by early September, around $105 by mid-month and reached $108 on Sept. 24, according to the report. It says a summer ceasefire briefly pulled prices back to pre-war levels before breaking down. Iran presented Washington with a written proposal on Sept. 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade; Washington rejected it, the report says.
The shipping disruption has also raised freight costs. Wojcik reports that the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, while rates for some supertankers reached about $860,000 a day on Sept. 10, compared with less than $100,000 before the war. The fund is small, and its manager says rates would fall if the strait reopened. The figures describe market movements, not a guaranteed return for investors.
The report describes other pressures on fuel supply. Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which Wojcik says counted roughly one strike every four days. Russia’s refining output reached a two-decade low, and Moscow restricted fuel exports. In France, official data cited in the report showed that 15 percent of stations were out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage; around nine in ten affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, whose €1.99-per-litre price cap drew customers as other prices climbed.
Fuel Disruption Reaches Food and Heating
The report’s central concern is that a shipping shock can spread beyond the oil market. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, Wojcik says, citing the route’s role in moving inputs for agriculture. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Those effects may appear after the initial disruption because crops depend on fertiliser arriving in time for planting and growth.
That risk comes on top of existing food insecurity. The report says 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, while food-assistance funding fell an estimated 59 percent between 2022 and 2025. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. These are attributed estimates, not a count of people already newly affected by the Hormuz closure.
Wojcik also links the wider energy shock to Poland, which he describes as relying on coal and imported gas for heating and borrowing to fund its military. The report’s framing highlights how disruptions abroad can matter to households through fuel, food and the cost of keeping homes warm. The supplied material does not quantify a specific rise in Polish heating bills.
A Fragile Supply System Under Strain
Wojcik writes from Poland, which borders Ukraine and sits near Europe’s largest war since 1945, as the report describes it. His account argues that several dependencies are under pressure at once: Gulf energy shipping, Russian refining capacity, food production and European energy supplies. Those links help explain why the report follows one maritime chokepoint across several sectors instead of treating each price move or shortage as a separate event.
The report gives a local agricultural example in Europe’s potato belt. After a glut in 2025, Polish growers harvested about 7 million tonnes, 18 percent more than the year before, and some farmers sold below cost by spring. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less, according to Wojcik. Five heatwaves and drought followed. Their growers’ organisation now expects a harvest down 25 percent, which would be among the smallest in a decade. In Belgium, the report says, processing-potato prices rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
These figures describe a sequence of separate pressures: lower planting after oversupply, adverse weather and concern about fertiliser access. The report presents them as evidence of vulnerability in the food system, while the expected harvest remains a forecast rather than a final tally.
“The world is not ending.”
— Tom Wojcik
How Long the Disruptions Will Last
The report’s figures capture a fast-changing situation, and the supplied material does not establish when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen or whether another ceasefire effort will succeed. It says Washington rejected Iran’s Sept. 22 proposal and cites one report that the U.S. president expects to resume bombing after the November midterm elections; the supplied text does not independently verify that reported expectation.
The eventual effect on food supplies is also unsettled. The FAO warning and the growers’ organisation’s potato forecast point to risks, but final harvest totals and the scale of any resulting price changes are not yet known. In France, the official station count records locations that have run out of every petrol grade or run out of diesel, so it may not capture every partial shortage. The account also does not provide a quantified estimate for Polish winter heating costs.
Reopening and Harvests to Watch
The next signals identified by the report are developments around the strait, changes in tanker traffic and oil prices, and whether diplomatic efforts produce a durable ceasefire. Any reopening could affect shipping costs; the tanker fund’s manager, as cited by Wojcik, says rates would fall if the route reopened. That outcome remains conditional.
For food supplies, the key test will be the harvests arriving later in 2026 and in 2027, when delayed fertiliser effects may become clearer. Further official data on fuel availability in France and on European energy supplies would help show whether current disruptions are easing or spreading. The report provides no later figures or confirmed timeline for those developments.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed since March, sharply reducing tanker traffic, and traces possible effects on fuel, fertiliser, food production and European energy security.
What did France’s fuel-station figures show?
Official data cited by Wojcik showed that 15 percent of French stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, compared with 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage, and the report links many affected stations to demand at TotalEnergies sites with a price cap.
How could the closure affect food supplies?
The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the report. The FAO warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027, though final harvest effects remain uncertain.
Does the report say Polish heating costs have risen?
No specific increase is quantified in the supplied material. Wojcik describes Poland’s reliance on coal and imported gas and presents winter heating as a risk, but does not give a forecast or bill estimate.
Source: hn
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